What Does the Amazon HQ2 Move Mean for Residential Real Estate?

Posted on Feb 14, 2019 in Buying or Selling, High Tech, Moving

Recalling the various holiday parties I attended, it generally took about 5 minutes of conversation before someone asked, “What does the Amazon HQ2 move mean for real estate?” It is not surprising that people want to know how such significant news affects what is usually their biggest investment (their residence). The questions of when and if to buy or sell – in light of the Amazon announcement – have been at the forefront of people’s concerns. I have a few thoughts on the Amazon move:
First, especially for a principal residence, my long-standing advice has not been altered by HQ2’s arrival: one’s priority should be the most desirable living situation for oneself and their family. While there theoretically may well be a means of leveraging Amazon’s arrival to your benefit, I don’t think it makes sense to disrupt one’s way-of-life when there are many unknowns.
What is known, however, are some illuminating numbers: the arrival of 25,000 new jobs will be gradual, occurring over a 12-year period. In the first year, only 400-500 jobs are anticipated. As George Mason University’s Steven S. Fuller Institute concluded in a Nov. 13, 2018 blog post, the housing impacts will be geographically dispersed and gradual, and only an estimated 14-16% of HQ2 workers are likely to live in Arlington. Those concerned about further school overcrowding might consider Arlington County Board member Katie Cristol’s view that she expects that Arlington will see just two to three additional students in each school per year, and that’s only when Amazon fully ramps up hiring in the coming years. “That’s not nothing,” Cristol said. “But when compared to the 500 students per year that APS is already adding, it’s really manageable.” (ArlNow.com, Nov. 14, 2018).
In the end, though, it is hard to argue that Amazon’s arrival in Arlington will not be a good thing for property values in the County. Indeed, the Fuller Institute also concluded that “Home prices will likely continue to rise, but the Amazon-specific increase will be difficult to isolate.” It has long been understood that Arlington is a good place to own a home – in the past 20 years, the average sales price of an existing home in the County has increased by 215 percent. Amazon recognizes that Arlington is a great place to locate a business as well.

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Home Improvements: What Gets You the Greatest Bang for the Buck?

Posted on Aug 29, 2018 in Buying or Selling, Moving

Clients and friends often ask me what home improvements are the smartest ones to make, both short-term when listing a home for sale, as well as generally over the long-term. The question is always – will I get this money back when I sell?
When listing a home for sale, my experience has convinced me that for most homes a relatively small investment in handyman fix-ups is some of the best money homeowners can spend. Though often minor and cosmetic, even the smallest of defects can embed in a buyer’s mind the idea that this home is not well cared-for. Eliminating this possibility is critical for a successful sale. Other listing priorities are a fresh coat of paint and the oft-mentioned de-cluttering.
As for longer term investments, my first advice is always if a home improvement will give you and your loved ones a better quality of life, then it’s a good investment. I also a look to Remodeling Magazine, which publishes a well-known Cost vs. Value Report annually. As compiled in the 2018 issue of this report (www.costvsvalue.com), the best recoupment for the Washington, DC metro area are, surprisingly, stone veneer (104.9% recoupment), garage door (102.0%) and front door (101.3%). The lowest recoupment cost projects are an upscale (as opposed to midrange) master suite addition (51.2%) and a backyard patio (54.9%). These figures no doubt vary by house and scale of project, and I am always happy to offer my insight and experience to neighbors and friends in Arlington and throughout the DC metro area.

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The New Tax Law: What Does it Mean for Residential Real Estate?

Posted on Jan 30, 2018 in Buying or Selling, Moving

In recent weeks, I have often been asked what the new tax law means for real estate. Friends and clients want to know if and when should they buy or sell, or more generally how the law affects them. Of course, I recommend that both homeowners and prospective buyers and sellers consult their accountant and/or financial adviser to determine the best course for their particular circumstances.
Here are the law’s main provisions affecting residential real estate:
▪ New homebuyers will now be able to deduct interest on the first $750,000 of mortgage debt on a newly-purchased home. This is down from the current cap of $1 million but higher than the $500,000 limit in the House bill. Current homeowners will not be
affected by the lower cap.
▪ Taxpayers will no longer be able to fully deduct state and local taxes. The law allows an itemized deduction of up to $10,000 for the total of state and local property taxes and income or sales taxes. The original House and Senate bills completely eliminated this deduction.
▪ Though not specific to real estate, the standard deduction is doubled from the old law. This significant provision may reduce the value of mortgage interest and property tax deductions as tax incentives for homeownership.
What do these new provisions mean to real estate in Arlington and the DC metro region? No one knows for sure but, here in the nation’s capital of public policy, there is no shortage of speculation. One notable relevant fact is that 19.5% of new residential loans in Arlington County were valued at $750,000 or greater in 2017.* Assuming this percentage continues in the new year, a significant number of new borrowers at this level will have less to deduct. Compared to the rest of the nation, the DC metro area has a relatively large number of borrowers who will be affected by this new limit on deductions. In addition, there has been speculation in the press about the law’s effects. A December 29, 2017 Washington Post article reported that “the steady increase in housing prices in…the Washington region…is expected to slow in the coming years.” The December 24, 2017 Wall Street Journal also reported that “the tax overhaul is expected to create winners and losers among housing markets across the U.S., dealing a blow to high-cost coastal regions but potentially fueling demand in places in the middle of the country.”
So should we panic and move to Peoria? I don’t think so. There will always be regular life reasons for buying and selling homes – family, work, life choices, etc. – and these changes mentioned above may well be at the margins. What’s more, there is a lot more to this new law than the real estate provisions, and the law’s overall effect on the nation’s and region’s economies remains unknown. It will surely be constantly assessed. As stated earlier, homeowners should consult with tax and financial professionals to determine what is best for them.
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